By Ron Brookmeyer (Author), Mitchell H. Gail (Author)
AIDS has seemed in additional than one hundred thirty nations, and over 100,000 circumstances of AIDS were pronounced within the U.S. by myself. an increasing number of, the general public can be looking on statisticians to supply solutions in regards to the destiny process this epidemic. This accomplished paintings confronts the issues which are specified to AIDS learn and unites them lower than a unmarried conceptual framework. It specializes in equipment for the layout and research of epidemiologic reviews, the typical historical past of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, equipment for monitoring and projecting the process the epidemic, and statistical matters in healing trials. many of the equipment of tracking and forecasting this sickness obtain complete therapy. those equipment comprise back-calculation, which the authors constructed; interpretation of survey information on HIV incidence; mathematical types for HIV transmission; and methods that mix types of epidemiological information. a lot of this fabric -- similar to a dialogue of tools for assessing protection of the blood provide, an overview of survey techniques, and techniques to venture pediatric AIDS occurrence -- isn't on hand in the other paintings.
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Additional resources for AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach (Monographs in Epidemiology and Biostatistics ; V. 22)
Thus, the relative odds of AIDS are attenuated toward unity, compared to the relative risk and relative odds of infection. , 1991). Thus relative risks and relative odds are not as stable and reliable as summaries of risk for HIV infection as they are for other illnesses, such as heart disease and cancer. To see why relative risks for HIV may be unstable or misleading consider an uninfected individual (individual "2") who establishes u2 new sexual partnerships per year. Suppose the chance that a selected partner is infected is ) • Suppose further that individual "2" engages in behaviors that produce a chance B2 of infection per partnership with an infected partner.
If information on numbers of contacts cannot be ascertained, or, if such information is unreliable, it is possible only to estimate the probability of transmission per partnership rather than per contact. 2, statistical methods are outlined for estimating infectivity under the simplifying assumption that infectivity is constant across partnerships. 3. 4. Jewell and Shiboski (1992) review statistical considerations in the design and analysis of partner studies of HIV transmission. 2 Statistical Methods for Partner Studies Data collected in a retrospective partner study include the current infection status of the susceptible partner and the estimated number of contacts between the partners.
Thus, serologic tests cannot be used to determine whether the infant is infected initially, and there is some variation in the literature as to how to define whether the infant is infected. Goedert, Mendez, Drummond, et al. (1989) defined the infant as infected if HIV antibodies remained present at 15 months or if earlier clinical "signs of HIV-1 disease" were present. They determined that 16 (29%) of 55 infants were infected. 6%) of 89 children of infected mothers who had been followed for more than 15 months were considered to be infected.